Rising inflation! Rising interest rates! Rising fuel prices! Falling property prices?
Some property experts are starting to predict a house price correction due to the state of the UK economy, but with the latest ONS monthly house price index showing the annual rate of house price inflation in the UK now at 10.9% and in Scotland at 11.7%, the property market is confounding the economists and the laws of financial gravity.
However, what I’m sure you’re really interested in though is what is happening and is likely to happen to property prices in and around St Andrews.
Well just for some background, in 2018 I put my head above the parapet and wrote a Report which proved to be highly accurate, predicting how I believed property prices would likely head over the next couple of years in Aberdeen. Then in April 2020, at the height of Lockdown 1, I wrote a LinkedIn article in which I predicted, and was almost a lone property voice in doing so, that prices across the UK would not fall and would in fact rise in 2020 and 2021.
I’m now turning my attention in Spring 2022 to St Andrews where I am working, in partnership with Keller Williams, selling and buying prime property for clients.
Predictions are very much based on statistics, and it is important not to just look at general average property prices or listen to hyperbole (I was recently told that prices in St Andrews were rising at 20% a year!), but one must analyse, and understand the different house types, number of bedrooms and price bands to see what is happening within each segment.
I’ve produced a property prices matrix for St Andrews (image attached) and if you would like a copy of the original full PDF showing the full 13 segments ,including price bandings, then please email me on [email protected] and i will gladly share it with you.
So, what can we glean from the statistics?
Well, there is still undoubtedly a lack of supply of properties, and it appears to be getting worse, which will only keep prices rising in and around the town. The fact that there is a certain major sporting event in July, which will see almost 300,000 visitors and further world-wide media and extensive social media coverage, will do nothing to douse potential buyer interest.
The key though is being aware of by how much prices are rising, so that one knows when to accept an offer if you are selling and what to offer if you are buying. We’ve all heard about the ‘outlier’ prices around town, and they do exist in every segment, but it is vital to bear in mind that these are just outliers and people should resist the temptation to then reset their price beliefs based on them.
In the matrix, I’ve analysed all the sales for the last 15 months and identified the outliers .There are, after all, many reasons for the outliers, and it’s important to remember that they are normally only one of 10 or 12 sales in a segment each quarter.
Hyperbole helps no one. Potential sellers hold out for unrealistic prices and potential buyers can be dissuaded from offering, with both psyches based on misleading ‘outlier’ information.
It is vital then, that if you’re considering selling or buying in and around St Andrews, to speak to a property professional who really knows the marketplace and who can guide and support you through the whole process and help you achieve your best price.
One final point is that Q3 last year really stood out for excellent prices, so this may be a great time to get your house valued in anticipation of the crazy summer of 2022.
I look forward to hearing from you with any property queries you may have.
Prime Property Consultant, Keller Williams, St Andrews